Inflation
Weight 15%57normalized score · 0–1003.8%
Recent observation
Market read
Retail pulse
Displayed view: European Union · All households · All retail.
Public reference · methodology-led
Sources and methodology
The index weights and normalizes available inputs. Its method, thresholds and bands are detailed here. It is a heuristic reference—not a forecast or a measure of any business’s results.
Sources stay attachedEstimates are labelledCoverage and caveats stay visible
Available factor coverage65% · 4 of 7 factors
Provisional composite: 4 of 7 factors currently contribute. The weighted score renormalizes only across available, fresh inputs and is shown only when coverage and factor-count rules are met.
Retail indicators are consumer-facing retail context for businesses selling B2B or B2C; they are not a separately measured B2B total.
A composite signal for strategic context, not a forecast, business result or guarantee. Missing inputs are not treated as neutral.
ONNE methodology onne-commerce-pulse-1.0 · assembled Nov 15, 2026; source periods and retrieval/publication dates are detailed with each factor below.
What informs this reading
All seven weighted factors are inspectable. Scores are ONNE's normalized factor inputs; raw observations, weight, source, freshness and missing reason remain visible.
Energy costs
Weight 10%0normalized score · 0–10017.6%
Recent observation
Essentials exposure
Weight 15%—normalized score · 0–10042.2%
Older observation
Audience exposure
Weight 10%—normalized score · 0–100No observation
Unavailable · Audience not supported
Retail activity
Weight 25%54.8normalized score · 0–1000.96%
Recent observation
Global trade outlook
Weight 15%68normalized score · 0–1003.6%
Recent observation
Connected ONNE signals
Weight 10%—normalized score · 0–100No observation
Unavailable · No account observations
Methodology and interpretation
Methodology version onne-commerce-pulse-1.0. The composite is a weighted, normalized strategic indicator, not a measured business outcome.
Factor weights: inflation 15%, energy 10%, essentials 15%, audience 10%, retail 25%, trade 15%, ONNE signals 10%. Weights are renormalized only over available fresh factors.
Score transforms (clamp means bound to 0–100): inflation clamp(75 − 10 × |YoY − 2|); energy clamp(50 − 3 × energy YoY); essentials 100 − share(food + housing + health); audience clamp(50 − 4 × weighted essential inflation); retail clamp(50 + 5 × real YoY); trade clamp(50 + 5 × mean(goods, services)); ONNE clamp(50 + change in interest %).
These thresholds and transforms are arbitrary heuristics, not validated probabilities or a validated predictive index. Partial coverage is not a complete, validated seven-factor index. This is not an endorsement of CNN methodology.
The score is displayed only when at least 60% of total weight and at least 4 of 7 factors are available. Partial coverage is explicitly provisional; it is not a complete validated seven-factor index. Unavailable factors never become a neutral score.
Bands: 0–19 extreme pressure; 20–39 pressure; 40–59 balanced; 60–79 expansion; 80–100 strong expansion. These are descriptive labels, not probabilities.
Wider context
Global trade outlook
Global goods and services forecasts, with commodity context. These are not local retail sales, local B2B activity or a reading of this market's customers.
Goods trade forecast
Recent observation
3.9%
Services trade forecast
Recent observation
3.3%
Figures retain their own source period and unit; they are not combined into local activity.
Household and category context
Spending & retail categories
EU and U.S. spending definitions differ and are not strictly comparable.
ONNE essentials grouping
Defined ONNE grouping; not a moral classification of necessity.
42.2%
Older observationONNE discretionary grouping
Defined ONNE grouping; not a moral classification of necessity.
57.8%
Older observationThe remainder includes transport and other commitments. This split is shown only when the API supplies spending data.
Food retail · 2026-09 · same month one year earlier1.03%
Recent observation
Non-food retail · 2026-09 · same month one year earlier1.1%
Recent observation
Clothing & footwear · not supplied · same month one year earlier—
Unavailable
Household goods · 2026-09 · same month one year earlier1.1%
Recent observation
Sector values are actual retail-volume changes from the same month a year earlier, not market shares or proof of demand or viability. They are not additive.
Your connected data
ONNE account signals
Account-connected ONNE signals are not included in this public reference. This panel does not imply public social, product or advertising feeds.
Useful signals, without overclaiming.
Observed spending and sales
Prices, spending and sales volumes describe past observations; they do not measure demand for a specific offer.
Conditions for entering a market
IndeterminateOfficial indicators vary by region and sector. They do not prove demand or offer viability; no saturation score is calculated.
This aggregate view adds context, not proof of demand or offer viability. Private account signals are not published here.
Eurostat counts market enterprises created from scratch or genuinely dissolved, excluding mergers and restructurings. Enterprise deaths are confirmed only after two years, so final death data lag.
EU and U.S. units, classifications and coverage differ: no combined total or score is calculated. Entries and exits do not prove demand, saturation or viability.
About the data
What does the composite measure?
It is a weighted, normalized summary of available market indicators for the selected region, audience and sector. It is an ONNE heuristic, not an official statistic, forecast, purchase-intent measure or business outcome.
Which factors are included?
The methodology covers inflation, energy, essential spending, audience exposure, retail activity, global trade outlook and an account-specific ONNE signal. The public reference excludes that private signal and never combines customer accounts.
What does coverage mean?
Coverage is the share of the total factor weight represented by fresh available inputs. A score appears only with at least 60% coverage and 4 of 7 factors; partial scores are provisional and missing inputs are not treated as neutral.
Where do the figures come from?
Each observation shows its provider, dataset, reference period and freshness; publication and retrieval dates appear when supplied. Official observations and derived values are labelled separately, and unavailable or older data stays identified.
How should I interpret the bands?
The bands describe the composite’s heuristic range. They are not probabilities, forecasts, proof of customer demand, or a verdict on a market or offer. Retail indicators describe consumer-facing retail context, not total B2B activity.
Practical next step
Test one offer at small scale; measure results before expanding.
Retail categories
Real volume change year over year · same month a year earlier.
Sources and periods
Sources and periods
Sources and periods
Sources and periods
Sources and periods
Compare markets
Retail volume change year over year · all retail, all households.
Audience estimates are available only for France. This view uses the national aggregate; no audience-specific estimate is implied.
Retail volume
Retail volume trend
Latest published value104.9index points · 2021 = 100
↓ −0.7% · 2026-08 → 2026-09
2021 = 100: 104.9 means +4.9% in volume compared with 2021. This is not revenue in euros.
Sources and periods
Retail history
Official monthly seasonally adjusted retail-volume index. These are periodic observations, not real-time data; gaps remain visible.
Observed retail series · index points · 2021 = 100Recent observation
Retail history observations, also shown in the chart
| Reference period | Observed value · index points · 2021 = 100 |
|---|---|
| 2023-01 | 100 |
| 2023-02 | 99.6 |
| 2023-03 | 98.8 |
| 2023-04 | 99.2 |
| 2023-05 | 99.6 |
| 2023-06 | 100 |
| 2023-07 | 99.8 |
| 2023-08 | 99.1 |
| 2023-09 | 99 |
| 2023-10 | 99.4 |
| 2023-11 | 99.9 |
| 2023-12 | 99.4 |
| 2024-01 | 99.6 |
| 2024-02 | 100.3 |
| 2024-03 | 100.4 |
| 2024-04 | 100.4 |
| 2024-05 | 100.7 |
| 2024-06 | 99.9 |
| 2024-07 | 100.7 |
| 2024-08 | 101.8 |
| 2024-09 | 102.2 |
| 2024-10 | 101.9 |
| 2024-11 | 101.9 |
| 2024-12 | 102 |
| 2025-01 | 102.3 |
| 2025-02 | 102.6 |
| 2025-03 | 102.6 |
| 2025-04 | 103.6 |
| 2025-05 | 102.9 |
| 2025-06 | 103.6 |
| 2025-07 | 103.7 |
| 2025-08 | 103.6 |
| 2025-09 | 103.9 |
| 2025-10 | 104.3 |
| 2025-11 | 104.5 |
| 2025-12 | 104.4 |
| 2026-01 | 104.6 |
| 2026-02 | 104.1 |
| 2026-03 | 105.3 |
| 2026-04 | 105.1 |
| 2026-05 | 105.7 |
| 2026-06 | 105.7 |
| 2026-07 | 105.1 |
| 2026-08 | 105.6 |
| 2026-09 | 104.9 |
Sources and periods
Monetary amounts · separate from the index
Retail sales in money
Nominal sales excluding fuel. Europe: annual euros. United States: monthly, seasonally adjusted dollars (not adjusted for prices). Periods and currencies differ: this is not a world total.
By market · all retail
| Scope | Amount | Period |
|---|---|---|
| European Union | €3.3T | 2024 |
| France | Loading… | — |
| Germany | Loading… | — |
| Spain | Loading… | — |
| Italy | Loading… | — |
| Portugal | Loading… | — |
| United States | Loading… | — |
Sources and periods
Europe: Eurostat SBS, NETTUR_MEUR. Total excluding fuel = G47 − G473; food = G4711 + G472; non-food = total − food; fashion = G4771 + G4772; household = G475. Each calculation uses a single year. Fashion and household are included in non-food: categories are not additive. United States: U.S. Census Bureau monthly retail series 4400A − 44700; retail excluding motor vehicles and gasoline stations, nominal and seasonally adjusted. Census NAICS categories do not exactly match the Eurostat groups, so unmatched categories remain unavailable. No amount is inferred from an index.
European Union · 2024 · Derived official dataEurostat · sbs_ovw_act · NETTUR_MEUR · G47 − G473Retrieved: Nov 15, 2026Published: Sep 30, 2026
By category · European Union
| Scope | Amount | Period |
|---|---|---|
| All retail | €3.3T | 2024 |
| Food retail | €1.4T | 2023 |
| Non-food retail | €1.8T | 2023 |
| Clothing & footwear | €244.7B | 2023 |
| Household goods | €341.5B | 2024 |
Sources and periods
Europe: Eurostat SBS, NETTUR_MEUR. Total excluding fuel = G47 − G473; food = G4711 + G472; non-food = total − food; fashion = G4771 + G4772; household = G475. Each calculation uses a single year. Fashion and household are included in non-food: categories are not additive. United States: U.S. Census Bureau monthly retail series 4400A − 44700; retail excluding motor vehicles and gasoline stations, nominal and seasonally adjusted. Census NAICS categories do not exactly match the Eurostat groups, so unmatched categories remain unavailable. No amount is inferred from an index.
All retail · 2024 · Derived official dataEurostat · sbs_ovw_act · NETTUR_MEUR · G47 − G473Retrieved: Nov 15, 2026Published: Sep 30, 2026
Food retail · 2023 · Derived official dataEurostat · sbs_ovw_act · NETTUR_MEUR · G4711 + G472Retrieved: Nov 15, 2026Published: Sep 30, 2026
Non-food retail · 2023 · Derived official dataEurostat · sbs_ovw_act · NETTUR_MEUR · G47 − G473 − G4711 − G472Retrieved: Nov 15, 2026Published: Sep 30, 2026
Clothing & footwear · 2023 · Derived official dataEurostat · sbs_ovw_act · NETTUR_MEUR · G4771 + G4772Retrieved: Nov 15, 2026Published: Sep 30, 2026
Household goods · 2024 · Official dataEurostat · sbs_ovw_act · NETTUR_MEUR · G475Retrieved: Nov 15, 2026Published: Sep 30, 2026
Business demography · separate official series
Business births and exits
Net enterprise balance
Same comparison year: 2024
View calculation and sources
293,544 − 333,926 = -40,382
Entries minus exits in the same series and year. This is a flow balance, not the growth rate of the total business population.
Enterprise births
293,544 units
2024 · Recent observation
Sources and periods
Enterprise deaths
333,926 units
2024 · Recent observation
Sources and periods
Data assembled: Nov 15, 2026. Source publication dates are shown separately when supplied.
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